Morning Radar
... heading into the weekend
Hello everyone,
Needless to say, headline flow should remain heavy as we move into the weekly close. As we’ve been discussing repeatedly, it’s hard to see why you wouldn’t want to be positioned neutral or risk‑off in the overnight sessions, and especially over the weekend. Don’t forget there is significant gap risk into the Sunday open and, depending on where we close today and what happens over the weekend, that gap risk could materialise in either direction – size your positions accordingly.
Looking at some levels:
SPX: Base case remains a 6,550 test; unless we see some kind of off‑ramp, a close below there opens up 6,150.
DXY: 100 has now been tagged; a daily close above it opens up a quick air‑pocket move toward 103.
CL: The “80 buy” remains a hold for the 100s as long as daily closes stay above the 90 mark.
TSLA: A daily close below 380 opens up a test of 300; base case remains 300 before 500.
XLF: The 2025 open level is pivotal on the way to filling the remaining downside gaps.
FESX: Monday’s low is pivotal on the way back toward the 50% retrace of the April 2025–Feb 2026 move.
FDAX: Similar to XLF (and many other charts) – a close below weekly lows breaks the range and opens up downside gaps.
No need to be a hero; there are plenty of opportunities even on reduced position size. Focus on levels and manage your risk. Remember that bias and size kill – if you keep those under control, you can get away with almost anything.
Wishing you a great day ahead!
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This Substack is not an alert or trade signal service and does not offer investment advice. You and only you are responsible for the trades or investment decisions you make. Authors are not registered investment or commodity advisors, brokers or dealers. Please do your own research.