Morning Radar
... the art of the headline
Hello everyone,
Private‑credit woes are lurking in the background, bond yields are rising, central bankers are warning that the conflict could push inflation back above 3%, and we’re even talking about possible drone strikes targeting California. Welcome to the last two weeks of Q1, with quarterly expiration and quarter‑end flows/rebalancing just around the corner.
Remember, in the short term it’s all about headline flow, while the deeper structural ramifications will take time to work through the economy and broader sentiment. We know the US administration will do whatever it takes to support equities and cap crude spikes, and we also know their initial pain‑point red line: Sunday lows in stocks and Sunday highs in crude – don’t make it harder than it needs to be.
The base‑case assumption is still that those Sunday extremes get retested, especially in equities, as the conflict and uncertainty drag on. Naturally, anything can happen and markets move fast, but to put the killing of Ali Khamenei into context, in regime terms, it’s closer to taking out both a head of state and the highest religious authority in a single strike. It is very naive to take Trump at his word when he says the conflict will be over simply because he says it is.
Wishing you a great day ahead!
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This Substack is not an alert or trade signal service and does not offer investment advice. You and only you are responsible for the trades or investment decisions you make. Authors are not registered investment or commodity advisors, brokers or dealers. Please do your own research.