Morning Radar

... heading into quarterly expiration

Still no end in sight for the conflict, the RBA is hiking rates, and Nvidia headlines aren’t getting the bang for the buck they used to. All in all, there’s no major change: market participants remain traumatised and are still hoping for a TACO, knowing that missing an initial “resolution / all good” 3–5% pop would likely mean underperforming their benchmarks – and, as we all know, nobody ever gets fired for delivering performance in line with the benchmark, but even slight underperformance can be career‑ending.

Keep in mind that this is both a central‑bank week and a quarterly expiration. Barring any really negative headlines or surprises, markets tend to grind sideways to higher into Thursday’s cash close; after that, things usually get more interesting. Most participants will be looking for the textbook seasonal pattern: FOMC drift into the decision and bids supporting any weakness to keep things in check, with March being one of the biggest quarterly expiration cycles of the year, second only to December in terms of positioning and flow.

If you want to keep things simple, I would let SPX guide and continue to use our framework. As always, if you are looking at cross‑asset flows, remember that the smart cookies are focusing on rates, commodities and FX and the jocks and thrill seekers on stocks.

Wishing you a great day ahead!

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