Morning Radar

... focus on the conflict

GM!

More of the same: the market is in hope mode for a quick TACO that isn’t coming; it’s another year where pundits start out looking for seven cuts that are not going to happen, and tech bros are surprised when earnings beats and wild guides higher don’t get chased aggressively because so much is already priced in.

As a side note, one thing I’ve always found useful, and like to suggest when you come into a new trading day, data print or earnings release, is to frame your thinking and actions around “what is the most likely outcome?” Always focus on “what is the most realistic expectation” for price moves, data, earnings or a central‑bank meeting – not what you would like to see happen, or what you think should happen. To do this properly you have to leave your bias at the door and you have to have done your homework; if those two conditions are not met, you probably shouldn’t be trading in the first place.

Going forward, a simple way to gauge market sentiment, flow and price action is to focus on the daily range set on March 9. After the aggressive risk‑off open on Iran‑related headlines, we saw key reversals across the board, especially in the major futures benchmarks — S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Russell and Euro Stoxx 50 — all of which bounced after probing their respective 200‑day moving averages. That cluster of simultaneous 200‑DMA holds is an important common reference point: dumbed down, neutral/chop if we trade inside that range, bullish while we hold above it, and bearish on sustained breaks below.

ICYMI, here is the latest video update on the SPX framework going forward:

Wishing you a great day ahead!

If you’re finding these notes helpful, a quick like, share, or subscribe goes a long way. It doesn’t cost you anything, but it helps the publication gain traction and keeps me motivated to keep publishing more. I hate asking—but it genuinely makes a difference.

If you are interested in attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed analysis on the charts and trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out:

If you are serious about attracting investor capital please check out:

Disclaimer

This Substack is not an alert or trade signal service and does not offer investment advice. You and only you are responsible for the trades or investment decisions you make. Authors are not registered investment or commodity advisors, brokers or dealers. Please do your own research.