Morning Radar

... from 48 hours to 5 days

GM!

We’ve gone from 48 hours to 5 days and it already feels like a full week of trading, but with that said: welcome to Tuesday trade!

Nothing much has changed in terms of what we’ve been discussing, the levels we’ve been focusing on, or our overall framework and outlook; however, it’s worth noting that Monday’s range now becomes a key short‑term reference point: bullish above, bearish below, and don’t get confused by the velocity of moves inside it. Again, all of the levels and frameworks we’ve been working with remain valid.

Naturally, with these kinds of moves my priority is trading and premium subscribers, but I still wanted to give you some food for thought following recent events:

- If you are not paying attention to the bond complex, then you are probably not really paying attention – you might want to bookmark the CME FedWatch page.

- Needless to say, when the VIX is pushing into the 30s you can’t keep trading as if it were still sitting in the mid to low teens.

- This tape is essentially driven by headline flows, so if you are not able to be in front of the screens, you have a lot less edge trading this kind of environment.

- If you are not used to trading these kinds of moves or this type of market, there is nothing wrong with sitting it out until we have more clarity.

- Ranges are wide and moves are plentiful, which provides an awful lot of opportunity; there is no need to be a hero. If you stay small, you can still get away with making mistakes, and if you get it right the wider ranges will still make it worth your time even on smaller size.

- The year is still just getting started, there are likely going to be more surprises, and there will be plenty of trading to be done – pace yourself.

Wishing you a great day ahead!

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Disclaimer

This Substack is not an alert or trade signal service and does not offer investment advice. You and only you are responsible for the trades or investment decisions you make. Authors are not registered investment or commodity advisors, brokers or dealers. Please do your own research.